- Originally published October 9, 11:35 am.
- October 9, 3:23 pm:
- Added comment on the Fire.
- October 9, 7:02 pm, 8:25 pm, 9:01 pm; October 10, 12:48 pm:
- October 11, 5:00 am:
- Catalonia’s president issued mixed messages on independence, signing a document declaring it, and asking the legislature to delay declaring it.
- Earlier promised higher numbers on the Fire toll have begun to appear.
- October 11, 3:42 pm:
- The first part of my weather station has arrived and is now operational. I’ll be watching for siting issues for a while, so it probably shouldn’t be relied upon yet but you can see the observations I’ve got here.
- Third wave Feminism has failed. A possible fourth wave might have failed even before it really got off the ground. The problem is the same problem it’s always been: white women who totalize oppression as based on gender (just like some folks who totalize oppression as based on race and a bunch of folks who totalize oppression as excluding class).
- The Spanish government rejected the Catalan president’s offer of negotiation and mediation. (Catalonia)
- We seem to be nowhere near out of the woods on the Fire.
- The Utah cop who was simply, flatly wrong about getting a blood draw from an unconscious patient and assaulted and arrested a nurse when she refused to comply has been fired. (Police)
- October 11, 8:23 pm:
- October 12, 1:14 pm:
- At this point, we have two choices: We can believe that Donald Trump is going down or we can believe it’s all “fake news.” Trump, of course, would have us believe the latter but James Hohmann has been doing a good job culling reports from a variety of sources. There’s a lot of smoke around this fire and I don’t mean the one near where I live.
- Speaking of that Fire, so, okay, maybe my drive to check on my mechanic’s shop and my veterinary clinic wasn’t one of my smarter moves and maybe my mother’s decision to evacuate was one of her smarter moves.
- The Fire continues to burn, essentially out of control.
- Donald Trump stepped up his attack on Obamacare.
- October 13, 3:33 am:
- The Tubbs Fire, which is the one of greatest concern here, is at ten percent containment.
- Donald Trump will follow through on his longstanding threat to cut off cost sharing reduction payments to insurers in his crusade against Obamacare.
- October 14, 2:10 am:
- I spent most of today working on network infrastructure at the house (yeah, the same house I’m worried about having to evacuate). With this upgrade, my Mom’s television, telephone, and associated electronics are now on an uninterruptible power supply and I am adding three WiFi routers (all on new uninterruptible power supplies) to make a mesh wireless network with about four times the coverage we’re supposed to need. This enables me to move the weather station WiFi hub closer to the weather station. I’m hoping this will bring that station back on line but I also now have the allegedly ‘right’ batteries. Oh, and by the way, that’s why this update is so late in coming.
- There’s more on that second shoe Donald Trump dropped in his crusade against Obamacare. A few people are pointing out that Trump seems to be giving a big push on something he alleges is collapsing on its own. James Hohman broke out the Pottery Barn analogy, warning that “it’s hard to blame your predecessor for problems two years after you take office. Especially when your party has unified control of the federal government.” James, you do a lot of good work, and I know you’re not alone, but do we really already have to be in horse race mode for 2018? Really?
- As speculation swirls around a 25th amendment solution to the Trump presidency, and with North Korea and numerous other crises still swirling, Trump ‘decertifies’ the Iran nuclear deal.
- 18 states and the District of Columbia are suing over Donald Trump’s decision to scrap those Obamacare “cost sharing reduction payments.” I should probably note here that a federal judge had already “ruled the payments were being made illegally, but the Obama administration appealed” and the Trump administration is presumably and reportedly dropping the appeal.
- The toll continues to rise in the Fire. From what I could see, the day in Graton started off fairly clear, but then we were back downwind of the fires.
- October 14, 10:57 am:
- There is a new evacuation map (figure 5) for Santa Rosa as new evacuation orders have been issued for eastern parts of the city. Also, I’ve taken a screenshot of a map of active fire perimeters (figure 11).
- I am facing a few extreme frustrations at the moment:
- My job hunt, of course, but I’ve now gotten my analysis of this problem on its own page.
- My cat, Admiral Janeway, doesn’t like eating the food the veterinarian wants her to eat. This is a really good veterinarian, but a really stubborn cat who seemingly only wants mercury-laced tuna for humans—and it’s killing her.
- Apparently the WeatherFlow WiFi hub is still too far away from the weather station. Allegedly, “AIR & SKY communicate with HUB via powerful sub-gHz telemetry radios. We have tested the radio signal over 300 meters (1000 ft+) in a clear line-of-sight. All situations differ with local obstructions like walls and power interference.” The distance is far less than that, but through a couple walls, which seems to mean my initial idea for siting won’t work. I am trying to devise another plan—and wondering if any siting scheme will work with the walls in this house (which are unremarkable for a manufactured home) or if the damned thing is simply defective.
- October 15, 3:34 am:
- I appear to have struck out with the weather station. I am attempting to contact support.
- Apparently there is “a new stage of acceptance setting in across the country, even among [Donald Trump’s] supporters, that he is unfit and incapable.”
- The Fire still burns. I have a new screenshot of the Sonoma County Complex map (figure 13).
- October 16, 4:30 am:
- Jonathan Easley’s analysis concludes that Donald Trump really only cares about his (authoritarian populist and, probably, paleoconservative) base.
- If James Hohmann invoked the Pottery Barn analogy, Obamacare’s backers now say Trump will bear the blame for wrecking the Affordable Care Act.
- My mother will be returning home today. The smoke was much better today although the latest Fire map (figure 13) shows that the fires continue to claim more territory and a massive chunk of Sonoma County remains on alert (figure 7) with many evacuations still in force. That said, “fire officials said on Sunday [October 15] they had apparently ‘turned a corner’ against wildfires that have devastated California wine country and other parts of the state over the past week. Thousands got the all-clear to return home.” To be honest, I’m not finding such assurances compelling. The maps don’t offer me cause for optimism except that so many perimeters remain little changed. And the changes seem small enough and far enough away that I’m weighing the danger of complacency against the unsustainability of remaining prepared to evacuate and, for now, I’m starting to bring stuff back in from my car.
- October 16, 6:43 pm:
- Donald Trump is apparently having some success in blaming Congress for inaction. Ummm…..
- Well, actually, how about this? Some judge Donald Trump‘s attacks on his own party as placing the Republican majority in the House of Representatives at risk in next year’s elections. And, these folks intone, if Democrats gain control, impeachment of Trump will surely follow.
- Evacuation orders and advisories in the Fire are beginning to fall like dominoes. And somebody—it won’t be me—might say they would have told her so, but now that my mother’s back, so is the smoke. It isn’t horrible, but certainly worse than the last couple days. I have a new screenshot from the Sonoma County Fire Complex Map up (figure 14).
- October 16, 9:33 pm:
- Took a screenshot of the CalFire Statewide Fire Map (figure 10).
- October 17, 12:12 pm:
- This is probably now the longest-running issue of the (Supposedly) Daily Bullshit. It includes all the Sonoma Fire Complex coverage that I’ve archived. But today, I’m finally seeing some actual containment numbers. Firefighters have actually made good progress, which is something I really wasn’t seeing documented before, which raises another question: Why couldn’t they offer these numbers earlier? There was, it must be said, an increasing dissonance between the fire maps, news coverage that understandably but perhaps misleadingly focuses on the scale of the tragedy and the personal stories of those affected, and a sense of returning normalcy that Sonoma County Sheriff Rob Giordano had earlier warned against too seriously but which has become pervasive as businesses reopen (my mechanic, whose shop I checked on, is changing my oil while I write this). So this will probably be the final day for this issue.
Fig. 1. Santa Rosa Evacuation Map, October 9, 2017.
Fig. 2. Santa Rosa Evacuation Map, October 10, 2017.
Fig. 3. Santa Rosa Evacuation Map, October 11, 2017.
Fig. 4. Santa Rosa evacuation map, October 13, 2017.
Fig. 5. Santa Rosa evacuation map, October 14, 2017.
Fig. 6. Sonoma County Evacuation Map from the Sonoma County Sheriff’s Office via Twitter, via the Los Angeles Times. Fair use.
Fig. 7. Sonoma County evacuations map, October 15, 2017.
Fire is affecting areas on the north and east of Santa Rosa (evacuation map, figures 1 through 7, and official information), including Windsor, and on the east of Rohnert Park. We are not in that area, but rather well to the west, so I have little to add to widespread reporting. The sky is smoky. When I went out to my car Monday (October 9) and Tuesday (October 10), it—and everything—was covered in ash. Otherwise, we have mostly just been worried.
At least 13 people are dead, at least 100 injured and at least 1,500 homes and businesses destroyed, authorities said. All three figures are expected to surge in coming days as more information is reported. Many homes and businesses were evacuated — some just in the nick of time as flames approached.
Of the numbers above, the 1500 number had been constant since Monday night (October 9) but started to climb by Tuesday night (October 10).
A power outage, beginning with a brown-out, struck our area Tuesday morning (October 10). It was of sufficient duration that I was forced to shut down my servers—they are now back up. My uninterruptible power supplies weren’t uninterruptible enough for this one and I’m hoping, only hoping, that’s the last of the power disruptions.
I managed to get into the afflicted areas on Tuesday to check on my auto mechanic and my veterinarian. My mechanic is located close to Coffey Park and appeared to be in the burned area (official map) but, fortunately, as it turns out, both my mechanic’s shop and the veterinary clinic appear undamaged.
Driving in the Santa Rosa area was an adventure. For one thing, the smoke is really thick. But also, power is out, affecting traffic signals at multi-lane intersections. Because I’m so disgusted with traffic engineering in Santa Rosa, I’m awfully tempted to say traffic was only a little worse, but my Google Maps timeline doesn’t bear me out: My exploration took an hour and a half; normally I’d be able to swing past both locations within a half hour. I might have seen one burned area, a field that appeared to be maybe a couple blocks north of Piner Road that I saw looking down a street that doesn’t actually connect with Piner. Otherwise, just lots of smoke, some pretty slow going, and I’m guessing an hour’s worth of awe.
My mother evacuated due to the smoke. She said she hoped to return on Sunday (October 15) and in fact returned Monday (October 16). The fires are still burning but she says the smoke is not too bad.
“One of the things that’s almost working against us is that the city is coming back to life everywhere,” [Sonoma County Sheriff Rob] Giordano said [apparently on Friday, October 13], emphasizing that the community is not out of the woods yet. “People think it’s over. It’s not over. These fires are still blazing.”
Just a few days ago, I was thinking the weather was cooling and that the fire danger was receding. I guess I was wrong (figures 9 and 10).
Fig. 8. CalFire statewide map, October 9, 2017.
Fig. 9. CalFire map, October 11, 2017. As of 5:00 pm, October 11, according to a press briefing on the Sonoma County Sheriff’s Facebook page, there were 22 major fires in the state. According to one speaker, “Things are going to get worse before they get better.”
Fig. 10. CalFire Statewide Fire Map, October 16, 2017.
Fig. 11. Sonoma Complex Fires map, October 14, 2017. The Tubbs Fire is the one of most obvious concern to us in Graton and Sebastopol but the Adobe Fire is responsible for new evacuation orders this morning. There is an additional layer for inactive fire perimeters not shown here; it is very little different from the active perimeters. Evacuation areas are shaded; this is different from the Santa Rosa map (figure 5) because, I’m guessing, it includes evacuation advisories as well as mandatory evacuation areas.
Fig. 12. Sonoma County Complex Fires, October 15, 2017. Inactive perimeters (a layer not selected in figure 910 but an example appears with the Winter Fire, near the eastern edge of this screenshot) have all but disappeared. I have to think this is a bad sign.
Fig. 13. Sonoma Complex Fires, October 16, 2017. An inactive perimeter has appeared along the north edge of the Pocket Fire and evacuation zones have disappeared from this source (but remain in force, figure 7). The Adobe Fire continues to claim more territory but the other perimeters appear virtually identical to yesterday.
Fig. 14. Sonoma County Complex Fires, October 16, 2017. I’m not seeing any inactive perimeters here.
David Marks, “Massive Wildfires Tear Through Wine Country,” KQED, October 9, 2017, https://ww2.kqed.org/news/2017/10/09/photos-massive-wildfires-tear-throughth-bay/
Paige St. John et al., “At least 10 dead, 1,500 structures lost in Northern California firestorm, among worst in state’s history,” Los Angeles Times, October 9, 2017, http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-napa-fires-20171009-story.html
CBS News, “At least 13 dead as wildfires devour wide swaths of Northern California,” October 10, 2017, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/california-fire-santa-rosa-napa-anaheim-hills-sonoma-at-least-11-dead/
Paige St. John et al., “Toll from Northern California firestorms sharply rise: 2,000 structures destroyed, at least 17 dead,” Los Angeles Times, October 10, 2017, http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-fires-20171010-story.html
Phil Willon et al., “Death toll rises to 21 as Northern California fires spread to more than 160,000 acres,” Los Angeles Times, October 11, 2017, http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-firesthern-california-20171011-story.html
Benjamin Spillman, “California fires making more pollution than a year of traffic,” Reno Gazette-Journal, October 11, 2017, https://www.rgj.com/story/life/outdoors/2017/10/11/california-fires-making-more-pollution-than-year-traffic/756020001/
Sonali Kohli et al., “Death toll rises to 24 as crews begin grim search among ashes of wine country fires,” Los Angeles Times, October 12, 2017, http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-methern-california-firestorms-20171012-story.html
Phil Willon et al., “Whole towns evacuated as Northern California firestorm grows; at least 23 people dead, 285 missing,” Los Angeles Times, October 12, 2017, http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-firesthern-california-20171011-story.html
Laura J. Nelson et al., “Death toll from Northern California fires jumps to at least 34; 5,700 structures destroyed,” Los Angeles Times, October 13, 2017, http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-fires-20171013-story.html
Joseph Serna et al., “Death toll rises to 40 as firefighters continue to battle massive California wildfires,” Los Angeles Times, October 14, 2017, http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-california-fires-20171014-story.html
Jim Christie, “Dozens missing in California wildfires as more evacuees return home,” Reuters, October 17, 2017, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-california-fire/dozens-still-missing-in-california-wildfires-more-evacuees-return-home-idUSKBN1CM0WV
I have previously argued that Republicans will turn on Donald Trump when they decide he is an obstacle to their agenda. Trump’s feud with Bob Corker is important not so much because it represents particularly new actual attitudes—we’re talking about functionalist conservatives—but because Republican politicians are now effectively admitting that this is the case.
James Hohmann, “Bob Corker tirade encapsulates five reasons why Trump has failed at governing,” Washington Post, October 9, 2017, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2017/10/09/daily-202-bob-corker-tirade-encapsulates-five-reasons-why-trump-has-failed-at-governing/59dae42b30fb0468cea81dff/
James Hohmann, “Stepped-up attacks on the press reflect Trump’s bunker mentality,” Washington Post, October 12, 2017, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2017/10/12/daily-202-stepped-up-attacks-on-the-press-reflect-trump-s-bunker-mentality/59de6f3f30fb0468cea81e90/
David Smith, “‘He is failing’: Donald Trump strikes out solo as friends worry and enemies circle,” Guardian, October 15, 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/oct/14/donald-trump-iran-healthcare-white-house-corker
Jonathan Easley, “Trump ramps up the culture war,” Hill, October 15, 2017, http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/355399-trump-ramps-up-the-culture-war
James Hohmann, “Trump’s attacks on Senate Republicans are paying political dividends,” Washington Post, October 16, 2017, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2017/10/16/daily-202-trump-s-attacks-on-senate-republicans-are-paying-political-dividends/59e4262630fb041a74e75d99/
I’m seeing nonsense about how tensions between Catalonia and Spain are easing as a consequence of the Catalan president’s move even as the move itself is more ambiguous than advertised. People who say these things are failing to understand what is immediately apparent to me: That the tone and pace of Spanish and Catalan politics is different from what we’re used to at least in the U.S. if not the English-speaking world generally. I don’t know what happens next. Neither, probably, does anyone else.
Jeannette Neumann, “Catalan President Stops Short of Declaring Immediate Independence,” Wall Street Journal, October 10, 2017, https://www.wsj.com/articles/catalan-president-set-to-address-issue-of-independence-1507636964
British Broadcasting Corporation, “Madrid scorns Catalan leader’s independence statement,” October 11, 2017, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41576870
Not so long ago, I wrote a blog entry, entitled “The corruption of the Left,” in which I noted that “[t]here are some stories being left out.” Think of Ruby Hamad and Celeste Liddle’s article as one of those stories.
Representation and diversity, for instance, can be important indicators of social progress. In feminist discourse however, they are increasingly served as substitutes for such progress. The giddiness surrounding Hillary Clinton as almost First Female President™ and the silliness over Wonder Woman as First Female Superhero™ both fostered an atmosphere of hostility to any women who had the audacity not to feel “represented” by either.
You weren’t “With Her”? No, it’s not because you’re an Arab woman who balks at Clinton’s fondness for bombing the Middle East; you just have internalised misogyny. Think Wonder Woman was average and kinda sexist? Too bad; she empowers ALL women. And don’t even consider bringing up Gal Gadot’s pro-IDF sentiments, that makes you a “racist.”
For all its talk of intersectionality, mainstream feminism still cannot comprehend that racism and sexism are not experienced separately but simultaneously.
And no, I wouldn’t specifically have forecast that we’d see a return to a theme in Audre Lorde’s essay, “The Master’s Tools Will Never Dismantle the Master’s House.” And that’s really the point—and the point that these mainstream feminists are missing—in standpoint theory. I don’t see it because, in my social location, I’m not there. And neither are these white feminists.
Ruby Hamad and Celeste Liddle, “Intersectionality? Not while feminists participate in pile-ons,” Guardian, October 11, 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/11/intersectionality-not-while-feminists-participate-in-pile-ons
These assholes still need to be prosecuted and the cop’s supervisor, who directed him to arrest the nurse, still needs to be fired.
Derek Hawkins, “Utah police officer fired after manhandling, arresting nurse who was doing her job,” Washington Post, October 11, 2017, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2017/10/10/utah-police-officer-fired-after-manhandling-arresting-nurse-who-was-doing-her-job/
Noam N. Levey, “Trump issues order to deregulate health insurance, promising relief from Obamacare,” Los Angeles Times, October 12, 2017, http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-trump-obamacare-order-20171012-story.html
Rebecca Savransky and Nathaniel Weixel, “Trump to cut off key ObamaCare payments,” Hill, October 12, 2017, http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/355258-trump-to-cut-off-key-obamacare-payments-report
James Hohman, “Throwing a bomb into the insurance markets, Trump now owns the broken health-care system,” Washington Post, October 13, 2017, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2017/10/13/daily-202-throwing-a-bomb-into-the-insurance-markets-trump-now-owns-the-broken-health-care-system/59dff67a30fb041a74e75d48/
Jessie Hellmann and Rachel Roubein, “Trump gambles with ObamaCare moves,” Hill, October 15, 2017, http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/355390-trump-takes-big-gamble-with-obamacare-moves
Tracy Wilkinson, “Escalating tensions with Iran, Trump adds new sanctions but keeps nuclear deal in place – for now,” Los Angeles Times, October 13, 2017, http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-pol-trump-iran-deal-20171013-story.html